40 000 South Africans may have died of Covid19, new research shows - not 15 000 as the official figures show

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South Africa's Coronavirus stats for 15th September

By Fakir Hassen

New research by leading insurer Discovery Health has revealed that more than 40,000 South Africans may have died of Covid-19, which is more than double the official government figure of just over 15,000 so far. 
The figure is based on the number of comparative ‘excess deaths’ since the pandemic started, most of which were likely not identified as being Covid-19 related before burial.
The research predicts that there will be 11,000 more Covid-related deaths in the next quarter. 
But while challenging the official figures, the report also commends the South African government for implementing an early total lockdown, which resulted in an estimated 16,000 lives being saved. 
Using actuarial extrapolation of the official infection rates and death toll, as well as the excess deaths reported by the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), the health insurer estimated that at least a third of all adults in the country have already been infected with the corona virus. 
“There is no doubt that our early-onset lockdown delayed the country’s Covid-19 peak, gave us time to learn from globally-emergent treatment advances and availed capacity within our healthcare system to deal with the pandemic,” Ryan Noach, CEO of Discovery Health, told media on Thursday. 
Besides learning about treatment from the experiences of other countries, the lockdown which was implemented just three weeks after the first confirmed case was identified also gave the country the opportunity of preparing emergency health facilities at conference centres such as Nasrec in Johannesburg and the Cape Town International Convention Centre, many of which are now being scaled down. 
One of the most drastic lockdowns in the world saw the initial 80% of infected patients that died being reduced to 60% in the past two months, with rapidly increasing recovery rates as well. 
“This mortality improvement has already saved 10,000 lives and will save a further 6,000 by the end of next year,” Noach said. 
The analysis also confirmed views by experts on risks from comorbidities, higher risks for the aged, and a lower risk of infection in children. 
Chronic diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia increased the risk of Covid-19 related hospitalisation by 27%, 11% and 7% respectively. 
But with those over 60 constantly being reminded to remain indoors, the infection rate in this group was only 1.3%, although the risk of them being admitted to hospital if they did contract the virus was the highest among all groups. 
Only 0.4% of children and young adults up to 20 years old were infected.

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